Aluminium has surrendered the price premium associated with Middle East supply risks, while copper remains supported by production strains and uncertainty over US tariffs, OilPrice reported, citing Standard Chartered analysts. The bank expects different paths for base metals as investors weigh supply conditions alongside US monetary policy, dollar movements and Chinese economic activity.
Standard Chartered raised its average copper price forecast for 2026 to $13,674 a tonne from $13,472, and its 2027 estimate to $13,210 from $12,875. Copper has gained 16% since the start of the year, according to the report. The analysts expect prices to remain elevated through the rest of 2026, with the pending US tariff review a major risk: the Trump administration has not clarified whether refined copper imports, currently exempt, will face duties.
That uncertainty has helped drive copper stocks on Comex to a record 790,400 tonnes, while inventories remain unevenly distributed across exchanges. Chinese spot demand has strengthened, with the Yangshan import premium reaching $137 a tonne, its highest since November 2022. Meanwhile, Chilean mine production fell 12.8% year on year in August. Standard Chartered forecasts a decline of slightly more than 5% in Chile’s copper output for 2026 before a recovery in 2027.
For aluminium, the bank reduced its average price forecasts to $3,249 a tonne for 2026 and $3,001 for 2027, from $3,318 and $3,199 respectively. OilPrice attributed the improved supply outlook to a quicker-than-expected Middle East recovery, expanding Indonesian production, strong Chinese smelter output and European restarts. Aluminium closed below $3,000 a tonne on 14–15 October for the first time in 2026, before recovering above that threshold in the next session.
The supply picture nevertheless remains uneven. A complete restoration of Gulf Cooperation Council supply is uncertain, with disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, higher freight costs and logistical difficulties on alternative routes. Elsewhere, Standard Chartered raised its zinc forecasts as concentrate shortages and smelter constraints support prices, but trimmed its nickel projections amid rising LME inventories and weak stainless steel and battery demand. Indonesia’s mining quotas remain a key influence on nickel’s outlook.