Severe disruption to Gulf LNG exports is redrawing global gas trade, but higher commodity prices have not translated into stronger earnings for carriers, Splash247 reports. European gas prices have reached their highest level since 2022, approaching $30 per million British thermal units, while the Baltic Exchange assessed spot earnings on the US Gulf-Europe route at $21,200 a day last week.
Almost eight months into the Hormuz crisis, Qatar remains constrained by export infrastructure that cannot offer the alternatives available to oil producers. Vortexa counted five confirmed LNG carrier passages through Hormuz last week, including just two laden outbound sailings, against a four-week average of 12 transits. Ras Laffan loaded five cargoes carrying a combined 400,000 tonnes.
Supply interruptions are also affecting contracted deliveries. According to Splash247, Italy’s Edison has received force majeure notices for 35 Qatari cargoes, representing 4.6bn cubic metres of gas, with deliveries halted until early December. Damage to two Ras Laffan liquefaction trains in March has taken 12.8m tonnes of annual capacity offline, and repairs could last years.
US exports are filling part of the gap. Vortexa put American shipments last week at 2.5m tonnes across 36 cargoes, while official figures showed first-half exports rising 23%. Europe and Turkey received 76 of the 143 US cargoes delivered in September, according to S&P Global data cited by Splash247. Egypt took another 14 as falling domestic output increased its reliance on imports.
Asian purchasing patterns are diverging. Oman became India’s largest supplier in September, delivering 590,000 tonnes, compared with 340,000 tonnes from the US and 100,000 tonnes from Qatar, Kpler figures showed. Indian imports increased 7% year on year, whereas China’s fell to 5.2m tonnes amid weaker industrial demand and greater pipeline supplies.
Europe faces tighter constraints, with storage at 74.6% of capacity, almost 15 percentage points below its five-year seasonal average. Yet increased US deliveries to Europe mean shorter Atlantic voyages, returning ships to availability sooner and weakening tonne-mile demand. Fleet growth adds pressure: Flex LNG estimates an orderbook of about 285 vessels, or 37% of the existing fleet, with roughly 95 deliveries expected next year.