Potential US sanctions relief for tankers could divert vessels from Russian oil trades towards the Middle East, increasing freight costs for Russian exporters while easing shipping shortages around the Strait of Hormuz, according to a Platts report published by Hellenic Shipping News. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright has said legitimate businesses would be allowed to buy sanctioned ships for unrestricted trades, but Washington has not released a detailed proposal.
The available pool may be considerably smaller than the broader sanctioned fleet suggests. S&P Global Energy Horizons counted 1,226 oil and LPG tankers under Western sanctions at the end of August. However, BRS Shipbrokers identified only 148 deepsea tankers sanctioned exclusively by the US Office of Foreign Assets Control as of 19 October, representing 2.5% of the global fleet by vessel count. Location data suggested just 14 had been inactive for more than three months.
BRS said most potential candidates were already working in trades likely covered by sanctions, principally moving Russian refined products. Relief would therefore largely reallocate operating vessels rather than unlock substantial idle capacity. Gibson Shipbrokers warned that Russian export freight rates could rise if ships moved into Middle Eastern business. The duration of any waiver would also influence charterers’ willingness to book longer voyages.
Geography favours Gulf employment: Gibson placed 84% of US-only sanctioned tankers in the Middle East, Indian Ocean or East Asia, with only 16 in European waters. Both brokerages identified Hormuz shuttle services as a likely destination after attacks restricted vessel availability. Platts assessed freight for a 265,000-tonne crude cargo from the Persian Gulf to western India at $95.83 a tonne on 19 October, compared with $19.15 on 27 February before the conflict.
Commercial and safety obstacles could nevertheless prevent many ships from returning to mainstream business. Gibson said 70% of OFAC-listed tankers were at least 20 years old. Continued UK or EU restrictions could complicate access to insurance and classification services, while vessel condition, vetting and charterer compliance requirements would remain hurdles even after US restrictions were removed.
Tanker owners’ association INTERTANKO cautioned that legal relief would not establish a vessel’s safety credentials, calling for checks on condition, insurance and ownership. The International Chamber of Shipping also said the proposal’s impact remained difficult to judge without clarity on its interaction with UK and EU vessel sanctions.