Disruption to energy and fertiliser trade through the Strait of Hormuz is raising the risk of a global food security crisis, OilPrice reported, citing a new assessment by the S&P Global Institute. The institute warned that agriculture faces overlapping pressures from higher fuel and fertiliser costs, demand for biofuel feedstocks and weather risks linked to El Niño.
According to OilPrice, half of global fertiliser feedstock exports passed through Hormuz before the United States and Israel launched their military offensive in Iran in February. The outlet reported that fertiliser prices doubled rapidly after the waterway closed to almost all shipping on 28 February. The disruption has added to strains on essential commodity trade associated with Russia’s war in Ukraine.
The consequences extend beyond the cost of shipping agricultural inputs. Nitrogen-based fertilisers depend on supplies including natural gas and ammonia, while staple crops such as maize, wheat and rice rely heavily on chemical fertilisers to sustain output. S&P also identified two channels through which energy prices affect food supplies: diesel raises farmers’ operating costs, while demand for biofuels can encourage them to switch acreage from food crops to fuel feedstocks.
Although shipping through Hormuz has resumed, OilPrice described control of the passage as contested and vulnerable to further violence and disruption. Restoring transit would not immediately repair fertiliser supply chains. Citing Semafor, the outlet said producers would need Gulf natural gas output to recover before feedstock availability could be restored, a process that could take months or years.
OilPrice also cited the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook as projecting a 10% increase in fertiliser prices by year-end, contributing to food cost rises of 5% in 2026 and a further 2.4% in 2027. The impact would differ across regions, with poorer countries facing the greatest exposure. S&P noted that food accounts for about half of household spending in low-income countries. Its assessment presented a worsening risk to food security, rather than an inevitable global food crisis.