The reopening of Venezuela’s oil trade under revised US authorisations has increased the importance of checking individual tankers, cargo histories and counterparties, according to a Kpler analysis published by Hellenic Shipping News. The report argues that greater visibility over authorised trade does not eliminate exposure linked to shipping behaviour or earlier voyages.
Kpler’s figures put Venezuelan crude exports at about 870,000 barrels a day on average in 2025, despite tighter policy. Shipments dropped to roughly 667,000 barrels a day in January 2026 before recovering to an average of around 1.14 million barrels a day between April and September. The analysis cautions that the January decline cannot be explained by a single cause, and says sanctions altered access to the trade rather than immediately halting physical output.
The licensing framework moved through several stages. Following the US administration’s February 2025 announcement that energy-related permissions would be wound down, authorisations for joint venture activity were curtailed through late May. A restricted licence restored some operations in July. The report describes a subsequent controlled reopening in 2026, with permissions covering sector goods and services, certain investment negotiations and a broader range of transactions involving sanctioned entities in Venezuela.
Destinations have shifted alongside those changes. China and unidentified destinations dominated in 2022, whereas the US was the largest identified destination in 2026, ahead of India and Spain, according to the analysis. Kpler recorded more than 560 Venezuelan crude trades involving 189 vessels in 2026. Unidentified destinations, transfers between ships and movements through hubs including the Bahamas and Curaçao still warrant cargo-level checks, it says.
The report stresses that gaps in Automatic Identification System signals are warning signs rather than proof of wrongdoing. Missing transmissions can reflect weak coverage or technical problems, while ship-to-ship transfers also serve legitimate operational purposes. Suspected false positioning or concealed movements therefore require checks against satellite imagery, voyage patterns and other evidence.
For companies assessing exposure, the analysis recommends examining the applicable licence, cargo origin, vessel behaviour and ownership network together. A tanker’s absence from sanctions lists is not sufficient assurance, particularly where vessels move between Venezuelan and other high-risk trades. Any resulting risk indicator should guide additional due diligence, not be treated as a legal finding.